Forecasting Accuracy: Comparing Prediction Markets and Surveys - An Experimental Study
The Journal of Prediction Markets (2010) 4 3, 1-19
Found that prediction markets are not superior to surveys. Suggests that comparisons of markets and surveys do not consider that prediction markets may have more information, and that they ask different questions. Conducted experiments with students to compare methods.
Some useful references
No need to come back
Sunday, June 19, 2011
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Taking the Pulse of Your Company: Siegel
Taking the Pulse of Your Company
Adam Siegel
Risk Manage 55 no4 April 2008
Nice general paper. Pitched at introductory level.
No need to come back to it, unless stuck for good ways to explain PMs to civilians.
Adam Siegel
Risk Manage 55 no4 April 2008
Nice general paper. Pitched at introductory level.
No need to come back to it, unless stuck for good ways to explain PMs to civilians.
Prediction Markets: Wolfers & Zitewitz
Prediction Markets
Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitewitz
Journal of Economic Perspectives, Volume 18, Number 2, Spring 2004 Pages 107-126
Very good summary of the issues. Goes into more depth than most survey papers. Worth coming back to again.
Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitewitz
Journal of Economic Perspectives, Volume 18, Number 2, Spring 2004 Pages 107-126
Very good summary of the issues. Goes into more depth than most survey papers. Worth coming back to again.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)