Sunday, June 19, 2011

Forecasting Accuracy: Rieg & Schoder

Forecasting Accuracy: Comparing Prediction Markets and Surveys - An Experimental Study
The Journal of Prediction Markets (2010) 4 3, 1-19

Found that prediction markets are not superior to surveys. Suggests that comparisons of markets and surveys do not consider that prediction markets may have more information, and that they ask different questions. Conducted experiments with students to compare methods.

Some useful references

No need to come back