Question? Ask the Crowd

Question? Ask the Crowd Kipplinger's Personal Finance June 2006 Very general, but some examples I wasn't aware of No need to come back to it 20701739

UC Riverside elabexchange

UCR ran a prediction market for a time. I contacted someone there to see if I could find out what became of it. Lumenogic.com (fka newsfutures)lists UCR as a customer.

12026106 - nothing to do with PM

Place Your Bets: Simon Clarke

Place Your Bets Simin Clarke Director, June 2009 General discussion but includes some examples of PMs that fell by the wayside. InterContinental Hotelscran one for 4 weeks in 2004, but didn't continue with it, preferring social networking with customers instead. FTpredict, by the Financial Times started in 2007, but was let lapse. EA moved away from the stock market metaphor to make the interaction more friendly. Not sure what they did though. Would be interesting to find out. 41672347

Crowd Control: Leah Hoffmann

Crowd Control Leah Hoffmann Communications of the ACM, March 2009, Vol. 52, No. 3 DOI:10.1145/1467247.1467254 Nice overview of crowd sourcing generally. Some nice examples

Betting On Ideas: Gregory Goth

Betting On Ideas Gregory Goth Communications of the ACM, March 2009, Vol. 52, No. 3 DOI: 10.1145/1467247.1467252 General. Prediction markets as indicators of infirmation flow in an organisation. Mentions Flu prediction market. Communications200903-dl

Ideosphee ForeSight Exhange

I tried Ideosphere's ForeSight exchangebagainntoday having retrieved my ancient password. It hasn't improved and is still very difficult to use.

The Tech Buzz Game: Mangold et al

The Tech Buzz Game: Mangold et al IEEE Computer July 2005 Good description of Yahoo's tech buzz game. No need to come back 01463120(3)

RIMDEX to Predict the Market in the Petrochemical Industry

ICIC Chemical Business Americas September 11-16 2006 Short note about launch of rimdex.com beta. A PM for the petrochemical industry It has since closed. Or never really took off. 22957032

Making Decisions Based on the Preferences of Multiple Agents: Vincent Conitzer

Vincent Conitzer Communications of the ACM March 2010 Vol 53 no 3 p84 DOI:10.1145/1666420.166442 Author discusses a variet of decision making strategies including voting and actions. Very general but could be useful for broadening discussion. He does mention the possibility of markets automatically generating options for sale based on combinations of simpler options No need to come back to this Communications201003-dl

The Outcome of Events: Mark Longo

The Outcome of Events: Mark Longo Traders Magazine, May, 2005 Discusses plans my Philadelphia Stock Exchange to allows trades in binary futures. Author things such markets may suffer from public relations problems, much as the "terrorism futures" market did Might be interesting to follow up and see what kinds of futures are being offered there now. The Phily has since merged with NASDAQ and the futures business has gone elsewhere. Betting on events as a hedging strategy for big money is very different from a PM for decision support. But there may be things to be learned from the rules and the structure. http://www.optionsclearing.com/about/publications/publication-listing.jsp 17137930

Modeling Volatility in Prediction Markets: Archak & Ipeirotis

Modeling Volatility in Prediction Markets
Nikolay Archak, Panagiotis G. Ipeirotis
Working paper CEDER-08-07, New York University

Deals with volatility. Some useful references in the introductory sections.

No need to come back
CeDER-08-07